IEM Katowice by the Numbers: A Deep Dive into the Data

IEM Katowice, one of the most iconic Counter-Strike (CS) events of the year hosted by ESL FACEIT Group, kicked off the new CS season with a bang. From record-breaking viewership to game-changing technology and some other firsts in tournament history, IEM Katowice had us on the edge of our seats.

56,000 passionate fans across three days filled the sold-out Spodek Arena, the 2nd largest venue in all of Poland, and the tournament accumulated more than 30 million hours watched online. The grand final between Team Spirit and Team Vitality drew 1.3 million viewers at its peak, marking the highest online peak for any non-Major Counter-Strike tournament. That is even more than last year’s IEM Cologne which we documented here.

Team Vitality emerged victorious, claiming their first-ever Katowice title. After defeating NaVi in the semi-finals they went head-to-head with Team Spirit, creating the ultimate showdown between two star players, ZywOo and Donk. It was a heart-melting moment watching ApEX, the team’s captain lift the trophy after competing in 10 Katowice tournaments, before finally securing the win on his 11th try. Team Vitality had a dominant 3-0 sweep and ZywOo shined bright, securing his 21st MVP award, tying s1mple’s historic record.

Let’s take a look at how the event went down, zooming in on the data.

Unveiling Player and Team Stats Exclusively Powered by Bayes Esports

As the exclusive data provider for all ESL FACEIT Group tournaments, Bayes Esports gets the official data directly from the game servers. This means it is undelayed, accurate, and extremely granular. With many actions happening simultaneously throughout a match, capturing this data quickly enough simply by watching or scraping the data is nearly impossible. To capture every critical data point, receiving data directly from the game servers is essential.

Last year, we shared an exciting product update about the new data points Bayes Esports now captures and distributes. To show just how granular this data can get, we dove into the data for IEM Katowice, looking at both the individual players as well as the teams that blew us away. 

Donk, currently the best player in the world, showcased his aggressive play style while playing for Team Spirit. He racked up a staggering 223 headshots over the course of the tournament, averaging 13 per map. Not only that, he was also the leader in the most ‘through smoke’ kills. This means 66% of his total kills were headshots and 9% were through smoke, proving his dominance as a true sharpshooter in every situation.

IEM Katowice delivered some jaw-dropping performances, and just by looking at the numbers, you can understand the story of the event. XANTARES from External Fire was a stand-out payer early on securing an astonishing 74 opening kills (an average of 4.6 per map) and 9 bomb diffusals. 

External Fire dominated in other areas as well with the team taking home the most headshots, most opening kills, most in-air kills, and most no-scope kills – all despite the team being knocked out in the semi-finals.

Throughout the tournament, Astralis stood out as the team with the most through smoke kills. Could this be their signature move? The team averaged an impressive 7.3 per map.

Meanwhile, it comes as no surprise that the tournament’s winner and MVP, ZywOo, was the clutch master, delivering 9 jaw-dropping clutches when it mattered most. But he wasn’t the only one making magic happen — Team Vitality dominated the tournament with 52 wallbangs, more than any other team. Leading the charge was their captain, apEX, who nailed an impressive 28% of them, sealing their path to victory!

Stats over the entire tournament (player)

Stats over the entire tournament (team)

The Launch of Live Match Predictions for Broadcast

Nine years ago, Bayes Esports revolutionized esports analytics by launching the world’s first fully automated machine-learning match probability feeds for Counter-Strike 2, Dota 2, and League of Legends. It predicts over 20 different match outcomes live as the action unfolds. Since then, our feeds have powered probability-based products for hundreds of clients worldwide.

With esports boasting a 600M+ global audience, breaking into the mainstream requires transforming complex games into engaging, data-driven narratives. This past weekend, we made history again at Katowice. Our long-term partner, ESL FACEIT Group (EFG), debuted the first-ever CS2 event featuring live match probabilities on the broadcast. A groundbreaking product exclusive to Bayes Esports, built on nearly a decade of data science excellence.

1st Match of the Tournament: The MongolZ vs Eternal Fire in the Quarter Finals

IEM Katowice started with an electrifying clash between The MongolZ and Eternal Fire in the quarter-finals. With both teams coming off the back of a winning streak, it was anyone’s game. The MongolZ, however, wasted no time, seizing the first map win, despite it being Eternal Fire’s map pick!

Heading into Map 2, Mirage, The MongolZ came out swinging, charging ahead with an early lead. But Eternal Fire refused to back down, and clawed their way back, forcing an intense overtime showdown. In round 35, the score was tied. Would The MongolZ close it out with a clean 2-0 sweep to get into the semi-finals? Or would Eternal Fire snatch their first map win and demand a third map to be played?

Our predictions nailed it! With The MongolZ taking the series, they delivered exactly as expected. Take a look at how our Live Match Predictions fluctuated in real-time. As key actions were made, the win probabilities were impacted, keeping fans engaged every step of the way.

The Grand Finals Through the POV of Predictions

Bayes Live Match Predictions were also displayed in the intense grand final between two of the top teams and the game's best players, Zywoo and Donk.

Team Vitality dominated early on the first map, seizing a strong lead. By the 17th round, the odds were stacked against Team Spirit—our probabilities gave them a mere 1% chance of a comeback.

The second map didn’t bring much better fortune for Team Spirit, and just like that, we were hurtling into the third, and potentially final, map of the event. The momentum was all on Team Vitality’s side, and you could almost picture them mentally popping the champagne. As they locked in their eighth point, the win predictions painted a clear picture: an overwhelming 86% chance of victory.

But Team Spirit wasn’t going to let them take the win that easily. They battled right until the very end. It had everyone on the edge of their seat, raising the question—could this go to overtime? By round 21 on Mirage, the most competitive map of the match, there was a chance of overtime. 28% to be exact! But just when we thought the extra rounds were coming, Team Vitality pulled off the win, clinching a nail-biting 13-11 victory.

Our fast and accurate predictions supercharged ESL’s broadcast which was shown both in the arena and to millions of more fans watching at home. ESL FACEIT Group chose three markets to display throughout the match, the probability percentages of map win, series win, and likelihood of overtime. This, however, is just the tip of the iceberg to the full potential of our predictions. Over 25 markets are available for CS2 and 12 markets are available for Dota 2. The possibilities for innovation and fan engagement are limitless.

We’re proud to lead the charge in shaping the future of esports viewing experiences!